拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想述评

2017年美日印澳四方安全对话重启以来,马拉巴尔2020军演是美日印澳四国首次举行的联合军演。马拉巴尔2020军演折射出美日印澳四国针对中国的意愿及合作新进展。美日印澳四方安全合作是美国印太战略的基础和牵制中国崛起的重要机制,在近几年持续获得进展。美日印澳四国在安全领域加强合作,对四国与中国双边关系产生深远影响。马拉巴尔2020军演后,原本紧张的中印及中澳关系继续恶化。美国进一步推动与中国的竞争。美日印澳四国不但在安全领域针对中国,还营造不利于中国的国际舆论。拜登上台后,美日印澳四方安全合作继续强化。拜登比特朗普更重视与盟友合作,借由与日印澳三国磋商推动美日印澳四方安全合作机制化和常态化并走向准军事联盟。美日印澳四国明确表示不会在政治与安全领域停止针对中国,但是在经贸领域基于自身利益考量将改善对华关系。美日印澳四方安全合作升级对中国安全环境及国家利益构成严重威胁。拜登政府正在强化针对中国的印太地区多边安全架构。美国试图在外交层面让中国陷入孤立态势,在安全层面对中国形成战略包围。拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想将让中国面临更加复杂的外交局面,更加险恶的安全态势。     

A view from the policy community: a new strategic narrative for Europe?

ABSTRACT

Reflecting on the results presented in articles in this special issue, European leaders should take greater account of external perceptions in crafting the European Union's strategic narrative and guiding its actions. Failure to do so has impaired external policies like the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, the European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership. Leaders emerging from the Arab uprisings perceived the EU as complicit with their countries’ former anciens régimes and Russian leaders see EU support for democracy and the market economy in former Soviet states as duplicitous and instrusive. Awareness of such perceptions should be filtered into EU decision-making, without validating views that European officials and diplomats consider misleading.     

南海航道安全保障法律机制有效性与局限性研究

为了应对海上航道安全威胁，南海各方经过努力形成了航道安全保障法律机制。该机制具有一定有效性，但也存在许多局限性，如合作机制的软法性导致遵约和履约行为的非拘束性、合作机制固有的妥协性与弱惩戒性损害其权威性、合作机制的原则性影响权利义务的确定性、合作机制的独立性受限于国际势力干预性，以及合作机制的公共物品属性影响其实效性。这些局限需要南海各方协同以破解制度困境：构建软硬法有机联系的合作法律机制；完善航道安全保障法律机制的内在构成要素；协同努力确保合作法律机制的独立性；强化南海各方有效合作的“选择性诱因”机制。     

守正、发展与创新:“十四五”时期医疗保障的完善思路

人口结构、就业形态、新时代的健康政策与脱贫攻坚任务、技术发展等宏观环境,为“十四五”时期医疗保障的发展提供了机遇也提出了挑战。立足“十一五”到“十三五”医疗保障从无到有、从制度全民覆盖到实践全民覆盖、待遇水平持续提升、各项机制跨越式发展等发展脉络,“十四五”时期医疗保障的发展思路应定位于守正、发展与创新。第一,坚守公平共享与切实保障的发展理念;第二,回应健康需求与不平衡、不充分的医保制度现状,在待遇保障、筹资机制、支付方式、基金监管等方面补短板、强弱项;第三,直面新形势的新挑战,在新业态人员参保、大病保障、医疗保障与公共卫生资金统筹衔接等方面实现创新与突破。目标是在“十四五”时期实现一个全民享有、公平适度、法治规范、高效便捷、协同联动的医疗保障制度。     

The Politics of Security and Technology in Switzerland

Technologies play crucial roles in security politics. In a recent push to understand the dynamic interplay between technologies and politics, IR scholars increasingly draw on reflexive research traditions. The aim is to understand the social and political practices that influence the shape, design and use of security technologies instead of assuming that technologies have linear, independent effects on politics. This SPSR debate draws on this new perspective and applies it to topics salient in Swiss public debate. Its contributions analyze how cybersecurity, predictive policing, drones, artificial intelligence, targeted sanctions, urban design and spyware are deliberated, negotiated, programmed and critiqued in Switzerland. They chart different analytical avenues with which to address the recursive and non‐linear relationship between security politics and technologies, and, by familiarizing readers with the tenets and diversity of reflexive political science research, seek to give that longstanding scholarly research tradition better visibility in the Swiss political science community.     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

North Korea and the East Asian Security order: competing views on what South Korea ought to do

This article investigates South Korean views on how to deal with the two major security issues regarding North Korea: its nuclear threat and regime instability. In this Special Section, the article analyzes the ongoing debate in South Korea over the government's policy toward North Korea in regard to these two issues. It argues that uncertainties about these two major issues are shaping the regional order in East Asia. In particular, the different levels of cooperation between South Korea and the United States may affect the regional security order in East Asia. In analyzing policy options available to South Korea, the riskiest option would be to employ early preemptive attacks and accelerate the collapse of North Korea given the security dilemma-driven action?reaction in East Asia. Given that the role of China has become the most crucial factor in dealing with North Korea, the most promising strategy would be to reinforce guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence and prompt a soft-landing unification.     

Towards food sovereignty: interrogating peasant voice in the United Nations Committee on World Food Security

The goal of the direct participation of food producer constituencies – and other citizens – is a key component of food sovereignty, the policy framework first launched by La Vía Campesina and engendering the much wider food sovereignty movement. In this paper, I outline the reasons why the reform of the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS) can be regarded as historically significant to this goal. Focusing upon the CFS's aspirations for inclusivity, I outline a framework for interrogating the experiences of social movement activists representing food producer constituencies seeking to convert their formal right to participate in the CFS into substantive participation. Going beyond the capturing of their experiences, the framework also reveals the different ways in which their challenges in attaining substantive participation can be overcome, with a particular emphasis upon adjustments within the arena itself. The paper concludes with an overview of the research agenda suggested by Raj Patel (2009), amongst others, and alluded to further in the content of this paper.     

略谈我国保安学的几个基本问题

在我国，保安学是一门新兴的、综合性的应用学科，它的基本理论和基本知识均孕育在公安学之中，是公安学的子学科。保安学有自身的研究对象，这些研究对象构成了保安学的内容体系，其中绝大部分研究对象是保安学特有的，这些是保安学研究的重点。保安学的研究，讲究一般的研究技巧，遵循客观科学的研究方法。它要综合运用相关学科的理论和知识进行学科研究和学科建设。     

中亚地区非传统安全潜在风险的多元化趋势

苏联解体后,中亚地区的安全问题一直成为国际舆论关注的焦点。20世纪90年代,中亚地区在国际社会和相关大国的协助下实现了无核化,并与中国、俄罗斯等国成功解决边境地区军事安全问题。当以军事威胁为主的传统安全问题大大缓解后,中亚地区的非传统安全问题就突出地呈现在各国政府面前。中亚地缘结构的特殊性,决定了非传统安全因素生成的跨国性和地区性,仅凭个别国家能力很难有效治理。而中亚各民族国家曲折的发展历史,尤其是苏联时期遗留下来错综复杂的关系,制约着地区各国建立起有效的地区治理机制,致使中亚地区非传统安全问题一直存在、发酵、升温。这一趋势如仍不能引起中亚各国和国际社会予以足够重视并采取有效措施,势必成为威胁地区安全的重要隐患。独立25年来,中亚各国高度警惕宗教极端主义和国际恐怖主义渗透和蔓延的危险,积极参与国际合作打击毒品走私、跨国犯罪等联合行动,"典型意义"上的非传统安全因素得到有效治理。但存在于各国高度关注之外的民族关系、人口膨胀、生态恶化等"非典型意义"上的非传统安全因素仍然不断积累,并正在对地区安全形势产生负面影响。